New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-04-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

WSH: 50.2%

NYI: 49.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.33

NYI: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	40	38	2	95.0%	3.82	1	1.82
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	20	5	80.0%	3.43	4	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs NYI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.88
1	NYI	23	1	1.62
2	WSH	12	0	0.76
2	NYI	17	0	0.64
3	WSH	10	3	1.79
3	NYI	27	0	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3