Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-04-10 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 51.8%

TOR: 48.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.95

TOR: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 57%

FLA

A. Lyon

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	A. Lyon	25	23	2	92.0%	2.54	0	0.54
TOR	I. Samsonov	46	45	1	97.8%	3.39	2	2.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	18	0	0.93
1	TOR	14	0	0.85
2	FLA	18	2	1.49
2	TOR	12	0	1.01
3	FLA	18	0	0.39
3	TOR	8	0	0.34
4	FLA	7	0	0.57
4	TOR	3	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2