Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-04-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Nashville Predators (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 74.4%

NSH: 25.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.97

NSH: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

J. Markstrom

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	32	28	4	87.5%	6.25	5	2.25
NSH	Juuse Saros	48	45	3	93.8%	4.84	1	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 27% • CGY at home vs NSH: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CGY 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	NSH
2025-12-02	NSH 5 - 1 CGY	NSH	CGY
2025-11-01	NSH 4 - 2 CGY	NSH	CGY
2025-01-04	CGY 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2024-12-10	NSH 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.62
1	NSH	17	1	1.73
2	CGY	16	0	1.21
2	NSH	16	0	0.82
3	CGY	22	0	1.49
3	NSH	9	2	1.38
4	CGY	4	0	0.53
4	NSH	4	0	0.32
5	CGY	4	1	0.99
5	NSH	4	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Nashville Predators

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9