Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-04-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 73.4%

CHI: 26.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.55

CHI: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	22	5	81.5%	4.17	3	-0.83
CHI	Petr Mrazek	40	38	2	95.0%	4.21	2	2.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	CHI
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	0	0.62
1	CHI	13	0	0.52
2	PIT	22	1	2.02
2	CHI	12	0	0.95
3	PIT	19	1	1.56
3	CHI	11	3	2.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.2