Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-04-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

BOS: 63.3%

WSH: 36.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

WSH: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

L. Ullmark

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	27	25	2	92.6%	2.34	2	0.34
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	44	39	5	88.6%	5.06	4	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	0	0.85
1	WSH	10	0	0.41
2	BOS	17	2	1.23
2	WSH	12	1	0.78
3	BOS	26	2	2.98
3	WSH	16	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1