Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-04-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 49.6%

EDM: 50.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.26

EDM: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	40	38	2	95.0%	2.61	0	0.61
EDM	Stuart Skinner	30	29	1	96.7%	3.32	2	2.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs EDM: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	1	1.32
1	EDM	16	0	0.86
2	COL	8	0	0.43
2	EDM	21	0	1.09
3	COL	18	1	1.38
3	EDM	12	0	0.48
4	COL	1	0	0.19
4	EDM	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2