Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-04-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

NYI: 57.9%

MTL: 42.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.59

MTL: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	19	17	2	89.5%	1.62	0	-0.38
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	31	4	88.6%	3.51	2	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	NYI
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	1	1.68
1	MTL	13	0	0.89
2	NYI	28	0	1.30
2	MTL	9	0	0.48
3	NYI	9	1	0.52
3	MTL	8	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7