Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-04-12 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 54.6%

DAL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.34

DAL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	37	32	5	86.5%	3.17	2	-1.83
DAL	S. Wedgewood	18	16	2	88.9%	1.64	0	-0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.46
1	DAL	16	0	0.84
2	STL	8	0	0.45
2	DAL	13	2	1.57
3	STL	9	0	0.72
3	DAL	12	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1