San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-04-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

CGY: 64.5%

SJS: 35.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.72

SJS: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 7.2

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 58%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	24	23	1	95.8%	2.35	1	1.35
SJS	K. Kahkonen	49	46	3	93.9%	3.83	2	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs SJS: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	0	0.89
1	SJS	12	0	0.52
2	CGY	15	1	1.15
2	SJS	9	0	0.51
3	CGY	27	1	1.78
3	SJS	15	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0