New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-04-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 32.4%

NJD: 67.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.30

NJD: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 57%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	34	29	5	85.3%	3.84	0	-1.16
NJD	M. Blackwood	31	27	4	87.1%	3.23	4	-0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 26% • WSH at home vs NJD: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.70
1	NJD	20	0	1.06
2	WSH	13	1	1.02
2	NJD	11	0	0.76
3	WSH	11	2	0.84
3	NJD	22	0	1.52
4	WSH	7	1	0.67
4	NJD	5	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.3 - 3.1