Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-04-13 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 56.1%

OTT: 43.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.22

OTT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 55%

BUF

C. Anderson

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	33	30	3	90.9%	2.38	0	-0.62
OTT	Mads Sogaard	36	32	4	88.9%	4.00	2	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs OTT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	1.18
1	OTT	15	0	0.82
2	BUF	17	1	1.62
2	OTT	15	0	0.89
3	BUF	19	0	1.00
3	OTT	15	0	0.68
4	BUF	2	0	0.19
4	OTT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8