Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-04-19 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

BOS: 44.2%

FLA: 55.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.86

FLA: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 56%

BOS

L. Ullmark

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	30	24	6	80.0%	5.41	6	-0.59
FLA	A. Lyon	37	34	3	91.9%	3.02	0	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BOS at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	0	0.87
1	FLA	11	1	1.08
2	BOS	22	0	1.24
2	FLA	15	1	1.09
3	BOS	12	0	0.90
3	FLA	16	4	3.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4