Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-04-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.6%

TOR: 47.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.24

TOR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	20	2	90.9%	2.63	2	0.63
TOR	I. Samsonov	32	31	1	96.9%	3.17	0	2.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.94
1	TOR	14	1	1.16
2	TBL	18	0	1.47
2	TOR	15	0	0.86
3	TBL	11	0	0.49
3	TOR	6	1	0.51
4	TBL	3	0	0.27
4	TOR	4	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1