New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-04-29 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 45.9%

NJD: 54.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.49

NJD: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	36	34	2	94.4%	4.40	4	2.40
NJD	A. Schmid	29	24	5	82.8%	4.02	5	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYR at home vs NJD: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	NYR 4 - 1 NJD	NYR	NYR
2026-03-18	NYR 3 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-07	NJD 6 - 3 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-04-05	NJD 4 - 0 NYR	NJD	NJD
2025-01-09	NYR 3 - 2 NJD	NYR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	9	0	0.44
1	NJD	15	1	1.14
2	NYR	17	2	1.73
2	NJD	10	1	1.03
3	NYR	10	3	1.85
3	NJD	20	2	2.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0