Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-04-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 52.3%

SEA: 47.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.12

SEA: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	29	26	3	89.7%	1.87	1	-1.13
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	28	26	2	92.9%	1.87	0	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • COL at home vs SEA: 5-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	COL 2 - 0 SEA	COL	COL
2026-03-12	SEA 1 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-16	SEA 3 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-22	COL 5 - 2 SEA	COL	COL
2024-11-05	COL 6 - 3 SEA	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.28
1	SEA	20	0	0.62
2	COL	13	0	0.91
2	SEA	12	0	0.57
3	COL	15	0	0.67
3	SEA	11	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0