Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-04-17 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 54.6%

MIN: 45.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.74

MIN: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	48	45	3	93.8%	3.79	3	0.79
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	53	51	2	96.2%	4.29	1	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.44
1	MIN	15	1	0.98
2	DAL	13	0	0.41
2	MIN	22	2	1.59
3	DAL	19	0	0.74
3	MIN	10	0	0.36
4	DAL	24	1	1.84
4	MIN	7	0	0.39
5	DAL	17	0	0.86
5	MIN	7	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1