Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-04-19 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

DAL: 55.7%

MIN: 44.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.05

MIN: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	23	3	88.5%	3.32	2	0.32
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	31	24	7	77.4%	3.14	2	-3.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.28
1	MIN	11	0	0.74
2	DAL	19	1	1.44
2	MIN	11	1	1.16
3	DAL	9	0	0.41
3	MIN	17	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 7 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3