Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-04-21 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 43.0%

DAL: 57.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.88

DAL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	23	1	95.8%	1.40	0	0.40
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	20	5	80.0%	2.98	2	-2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • MIN at home vs DAL: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.82
1	DAL	8	0	0.31
2	MIN	13	1	1.25
2	DAL	10	0	0.30
3	MIN	9	1	0.91
3	DAL	18	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1