Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-04-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 42.4%

WPG: 57.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.77

WPG: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

L. Brossoit

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	33	31	2	93.9%	3.29	1	1.29
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	39	34	5	87.2%	2.99	0	-2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs WPG: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.77
1	WPG	22	1	2.02
2	VGK	21	0	1.30
2	WPG	11	0	0.68
3	VGK	14	0	0.92
3	WPG	12	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4