Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-04-24 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 60.3%

VGK: 39.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.26

VGK: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	30	26	4	86.7%	2.80	1	-1.20
VGK	L. Brossoit	26	24	2	92.3%	2.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs VGK: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	11	0	0.74
1	VGK	12	0	0.65
2	WPG	14	0	0.44
2	VGK	13	0	0.99
3	WPG	17	0	1.00
3	VGK	13	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0