Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-05-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 43.5%

FLA: 56.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.08

FLA: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	28	24	4	85.7%	2.82	1	-1.18
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	34	2	94.4%	4.04	1	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	1.30
1	FLA	19	0	1.08
2	TOR	18	1	1.36
2	FLA	9	0	0.61
3	TOR	18	0	1.38
3	FLA	14	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4