Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-05-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.5%

FLA: 47.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.18

FLA: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 56%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	43	40	3	93.0%	3.61	3	0.61
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	52	50	2	96.2%	3.96	4	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	1	1.21
1	FLA	13	2	1.26
2	TOR	18	2	1.17
2	FLA	20	1	1.29
3	TOR	16	0	0.67
3	FLA	8	0	0.23
4	TOR	13	1	0.91
4	FLA	13	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0