New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-05-05 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 47.0%

NJD: 53.0%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.20

NJD: 3.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	29	28	1	96.6%	3.07	1	2.07
NJD	A. Schmid	35	29	6	82.9%	3.50	3	-2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs NJD: 15-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	0	0.87
1	NJD	11	0	1.10
2	CAR	23	3	1.91
2	NJD	15	1	0.98
3	CAR	11	0	0.73
3	NJD	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.7