New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-05-11 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 47.2%

NJD: 52.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.07

NJD: 3.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	29	27	2	93.1%	2.68	2	0.68
NJD	A. Schmid	39	36	3	92.3%	3.36	2	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs NJD: 15-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	2	1.20
1	NJD	8	0	0.72
2	CAR	17	0	0.66
2	NJD	21	1	1.01
3	CAR	20	0	0.97
3	NJD	10	1	0.70
4	CAR	8	0	0.52
4	NJD	6	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.6