Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 41.7%

EDM: 58.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.94

EDM: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 56%

VGK

L. Brossoit

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	27	23	4	85.2%	2.36	0	-1.64
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	28	6	82.4%	3.53	1	-2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.21
1	EDM	12	0	0.49
2	VGK	16	0	1.04
2	EDM	11	0	0.39
3	VGK	10	1	1.28
3	EDM	19	0	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3