Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

VGK: 41.8%

EDM: 58.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.02

EDM: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

L. Brossoit

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	36	31	5	86.1%	4.28	3	-0.72
EDM	Stuart Skinner	31	30	1	96.8%	2.60	0	1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	5	0	0.59
1	EDM	24	1	2.41
2	VGK	15	0	0.97
2	EDM	16	2	1.65
3	VGK	20	0	1.04
3	EDM	5	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5