Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-05-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 65.9%

VGK: 34.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 4.47

VGK: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	33	28	5	84.8%	3.94	6	-1.06
VGK	L. Brossoit	28	27	1	96.4%	2.56	2	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.83
1	VGK	17	4	2.01
2	EDM	12	0	0.45
2	VGK	13	1	1.34
3	EDM	13	2	1.28
3	VGK	10	1	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 4.5 - 3.0