Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-05-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

EDM: 63.6%

VGK: 36.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 4.02

VGK: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 54%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	26	25	1	96.2%	2.17	1	1.17
VGK	Adin Hill	33	29	4	87.9%	3.16	3	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	0	0.94
1	VGK	7	0	0.48
2	EDM	17	1	1.18
2	VGK	12	0	0.81
3	EDM	10	2	1.04
3	VGK	13	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 4.0 - 3.0