Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 44.8%

EDM: 55.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.95

EDM: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	35	32	3	91.4%	2.50	1	-0.50
EDM	Stuart Skinner	31	27	4	87.1%	3.54	4	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.13
1	EDM	18	1	1.11
2	VGK	13	1	0.94
2	EDM	13	0	0.52
3	VGK	12	2	1.47
3	EDM	14	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4