Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 49.1%

DAL: 50.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.18

DAL: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	36	33	3	91.7%	2.26	0	-0.74
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	33	4	89.2%	3.27	4	-0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	1	0.91
1	DAL	15	0	0.67
2	VGK	16	1	1.22
2	DAL	11	0	0.35
3	VGK	10	1	0.79
3	DAL	18	0	1.24
4	VGK	2	1	0.35
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6