Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 57.2%

VGK: 42.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.08

VGK: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	39	37	2	94.9%	2.47	4	0.47
VGK	Adin Hill	42	39	3	92.9%	3.32	1	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	1	1.12
1	VGK	14	3	0.95
2	DAL	24	0	1.28
2	VGK	14	0	0.67
3	DAL	10	0	0.55
3	VGK	17	1	0.80
4	DAL	5	0	0.37
4	VGK	3	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0