Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-01-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 63.1%

DET: 36.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.65

DET: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	1	0.83
1	DET	13	0	0.71
2	TOR	17	0	1.16
2	DET	13	1	0.99
3	TOR	17	1	1.00
3	DET	11	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8