Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-01-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.5%

COL: 45.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.07

COL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	23	1	1.51
1	COL	12	0	0.74
2	OTT	16	2	2.15
2	COL	13	0	0.98
3	OTT	17	1	1.18
3	COL	14	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1