Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-01-18 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

TBL: 62.4%

MIN: 37.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.35

MIN: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	0.94
1	MIN	16	0	0.97
2	TBL	18	1	1.21
2	MIN	13	1	0.65
3	TBL	16	3	2.12
3	MIN	15	0	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0