St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-01-18 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 44.7%

STL: 55.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.85

STL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.78
1	STL	9	0	0.64
2	WSH	10	2	0.98
2	STL	12	0	0.84
3	WSH	10	2	1.24
3	STL	12	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2