Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-01-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CGY: 49.9%

TOR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.39

TOR: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	CGY
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	0	1.25
1	TOR	11	0	0.39
2	CGY	15	1	1.74
2	TOR	19	1	1.41
3	CGY	9	0	0.33
3	TOR	18	5	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3