Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-01-20 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BUF: 41.4%

TBL: 58.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

TBL: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	1	0.62
1	TBL	9	0	0.54
2	BUF	9	0	0.47
2	TBL	14	2	1.20
3	BUF	20	1	0.98
3	TBL	9	2	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.6