Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-01-20 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.3%

COL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.35

COL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs COL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	COL
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	1	1.13
1	COL	8	0	0.71
2	PHI	13	0	0.69
2	COL	11	0	0.65
3	PHI	25	0	1.27
3	COL	13	2	2.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1