Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-01-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

CGY: 35.7%

EDM: 64.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.70

EDM: 3.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.65
1	EDM	18	2	1.58
2	CGY	11	0	0.55
2	EDM	14	2	1.30
3	CGY	13	0	0.96
3	EDM	13	2	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7