Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-01-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

VGK: 56.0%

PIT: 44.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.88

PIT: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.78
1	PIT	11	0	0.37
2	VGK	12	0	0.50
2	PIT	14	1	1.32
3	VGK	18	2	1.93
3	PIT	11	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4