Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-01-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.8%

OTT: 44.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.18

OTT: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs OTT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	8	1	0.48
1	OTT	12	0	0.44
2	PHI	12	0	0.52
2	OTT	20	2	1.95
3	PHI	12	0	0.55
3	OTT	19	2	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9