Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-01-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.7%

TBL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.08

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	1	1.05
1	TBL	8	0	0.21
2	DET	22	1	2.03
2	TBL	9	0	0.38
3	DET	5	1	0.59
3	TBL	26	2	2.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2