Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-01-22 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 6 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 45.4%

VGK: 54.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.70

VGK: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	18	2	1.10
1	VGK	17	1	1.49
2	NJD	10	1	0.76
2	VGK	15	1	1.40
3	NJD	18	0	1.07
3	VGK	9	0	0.55
4	NJD	7	0	0.60
4	VGK	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 6 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 2.8