Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-01-23 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 47.6%

TBL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.15

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.46
1	TBL	7	0	0.43
2	PHI	20	0	0.81
2	TBL	12	1	1.19
3	PHI	21	0	1.07
3	TBL	10	2	2.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2