Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-01-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 52.2%

VGK: 47.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.08

VGK: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.31
1	VGK	10	0	0.35
2	NYI	29	0	1.31
2	VGK	12	1	0.97
3	NYI	24	0	1.62
3	VGK	12	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2