Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-01-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 0 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 48.8%

WPG: 51.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.35

WPG: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • TOR at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.43
1	WPG	23	1	1.16
2	TOR	15	0	0.63
2	WPG	9	1	0.80
3	TOR	16	1	0.94
3	WPG	12	0	0.32
4	TOR	3	0	0.23
4	WPG	4	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 0 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2