Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-01-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

TBL: 66.6%

ARI: 33.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.63

ARI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs ARI: 1-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-25	TBL 6 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2023-11-28	ARI 3 - 1 TBL	ARI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.45
1	ARI	9	1	0.61
2	TBL	19	1	1.21
2	ARI	12	0	0.62
3	TBL	14	1	1.37
3	ARI	7	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0