Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-01-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

DAL: 67.8%

WSH: 32.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.06

WSH: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	18	1	1.31
1	WSH	8	0	0.22
2	DAL	17	1	1.08
2	WSH	13	0	0.60
3	DAL	12	1	0.88
3	WSH	24	1	1.45
4	DAL	1	0	0.14
4	WSH	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7