Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-01-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.3%

VGK: 53.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.95

VGK: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	DET
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	DET
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.77
1	VGK	11	1	0.80
2	DET	19	3	1.79
2	VGK	14	1	1.29
3	DET	8	1	0.94
3	VGK	12	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4