Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-01-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 56.1%

MTL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.59

MTL: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	22	0	0.93
1	MTL	16	0	0.94
2	PIT	19	1	1.42
2	MTL	17	0	1.23
3	PIT	17	0	1.04
3	MTL	8	0	0.25
4	PIT	1	0	0.14
4	MTL	2	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8